China could use a “whole-of-system” approach to decarbonise its cement industry, according to a report released today by thinktank Climate Analytics. 

In this issue, report author James Bowen, Climate Analytics climate and energy policy analyst, examines how China could reduce the sector’s country-sized emissions.

China’s challenge in managing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions accompanying its economic rise is best illustrated by cement.

From about 200m tonnes (Mt) in 1990, Chinese cement production – almost all of which is domestically consumed – climbed to 2.5bn tonnes (Gt) in 2014 and has remained near this level for about a decade.

Its cement sector now emits more than the entire economies of all but three countries other than China itself – more than 1.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) a year.

Cement decline significant but not enough for 1.5C

China’s main cement emissions challenge is that it continues to use far more cement and cement products per person than most countries.

Cement demand is now entering sustained decline as China’s economy restructures. Based on current trends, national production could drop below 1Gt by 2050.

But analysts have estimated that in addition to cutting demand – potentially even further than expected by 2050 – the emissions per unit of production would also need to fall, to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Specifically, they estimate that emissions per unit would need to fall to around 360kg of CO2 per tonne by 2030 and 55-90kg by 2050. If each tonne of future Chinese cement continues to generate about 550kg of CO2, as at present, then the sector will remain well off this pace.

This task is formidable. Cement is an inexpensive, high-performance building material with widely available feedstocks. 

About 90% of its emissions come from producing clinker – a key ingredient. 

Table comparing China’s cement production benchmarks with the global average. Source: Climate Analytics.

Unavoidable process emissions account for the majority of these emissions. But producers globally have also not yet managed to eliminate the remainder of clinker emissions, which result from heating cement kilns.

Cement’s emissions intensity in China has also rebounded since 2015, driven by new restrictions on cement with lower clinker content, due to quality concerns.

Many areas of past emissions-reduction success in China’s cement sector, such as energy efficiency, are approaching their technical limits.

These challenges help explain why carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) remains prominent in cement net-zero roadmaps globally.

But CCUS remains expensive and underperforming, given relatively little improvement in learning rates and related cost reductions. Plans to deploy CCUS therefore present a risk of diverting attention from cheaper and more effective abatement options – or failing to deliver as expected. This could sustain considerable mid-century residual emissions, jeopardising net-zero goals.

A ‘whole-of-system’ approach

An alternative “whole-of-system” approach could help China meet its cement emissions challenge more cheaply, without relying so heavily on the promise of CCUS.

This could include enhanced cement demand reduction, such as by extending building lifespans; optimising how concrete is designed and used; using alternative materials – such as timber – where appropriate; and reducing and reusing construction waste.

It could also include accelerating uptake of lower-carbon production technologies, such as alternative cement kiln fuels, electrified kiln heating, as well as low-clinker and alternative binder cements.

A wide range of policy support could advance this whole-of-system approach, including by ensuring a just transition for cement workers and impacted communities.

China has said it is working to include cement in the national emissions trading system (ETS) by 2027.

China could also incentivise companies to use less clinker by adopting a cement-based ETS benchmark, rather than a clinker benchmark, which has encouraged EU firms to continue using the carbon-intensive material under the region’s own ETS.

China could also displace coal from kiln heating, by adopting European-like measures to encourage the use of biomass or waste-derived fuels.

Meanwhile, reform in areas including industry standards, finance, market access and research and development could accelerate adoption of other low-emissions technologies and processes.